Abstract

Background: Older adults with hypertension have a high risk of disability, while an accurate risk prediction model is still lacking. This study aimed to construct interpretable disability prediction models for older Chinese with hypertension based on multiple time intervals.

Methods: Data were collected from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study for 2008-2018. A total of 1602, 1108, and 537 older adults were included for the periods of 2008-2012, 2008-2014, and 2008-2018, respectively. Disability was measured by basic activities of daily living. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was applied for feature selection. Five machine learning algorithms combined with LASSO set and full-variable set were used to predict 4-, 6-, and 10-year disability risk, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used as the main metric for selection of the optimal model. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to explore important predictors of the optimal model.

Results: Random forest in full-variable set and XGBoost in LASSO set were the optimal models for 4-year prediction. Support vector machine was the optimal model for 6-year prediction on both sets. For 10-year prediction, deep neural network in full variable set and logistic regression in LASSO set were optimal models. Age ranked the most important predictor. Marital status, body mass index, score of Mini-Mental State Examination, and psychological well-being score were also important predictors.

Conclusions: Machine learning shows promise in screening out older adults at high risk of disability. Disability prevention strategies should specifically focus on older patients with unfortunate marriage, high BMI, and poor cognitive and psychological conditions.